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Before you scroll any further, take a moment to answer this question: Create your own sequence that fits the pattern above. By the end of the newsletter, I'll reveal the pattern I had in mind.

I'll leave it at that for now and explain at the end.

Why does this matter?

It's your job to solve problems every day. Solutions require time, resources, and commitment. This means that every decision you make can’t easily be undone.

And the more you want your solutions to succeed, the more important it is to carefully consider your decisions.

So in this issue, I hope to teach you or at least remind you that sometimes, less is more. We start with…

Your preference for complexity.

I start with showing you 2 examples:

Simple Coffee Maker:

Espresso Machine: 

Both machines can make a good cup of coffee. But if you ask anyone, most will tell you they find the espresso machine better.

This happens because the espresso machine feels unfamiliar, exciting, and mysterious. This is where complexity bias comes from: what you know seems boring, while what you don’t know feels exciting.

Now that you know complexity bias is real, let's explore why it's the last thing you want in your solutions.

Complexity is a double edged sword.

1. Multiple failure points. Each project has failure points to consider. The more failure points, the likely it is to fail. Failure points are aspects of the process that are not guaranteed to succeed. If a point fails, then the whole project fails.

2. It’s a maintenance nightmare. Even if you successfully launch the project, you'll need people to support it. This means you'll have to hire, train, and retain additional staff.

3. It creates knowledge gaps. Even with skilled staff, overly complex systems are challenging to understand and modify. It requires careful planning and execution to avoid any disruptions.

Bonus: More often, most complex systems I see barely get updated.

Why Simple Solutions Are Most Preferred

1. It’s easier to understand. Simple solutions are easier to grasp, making communication and training more straightforward.

2. Faster development. Simple solutions are quicker to deploy and require less resources.

3. Practical. More often, simple solutions are more cost effective.

4. Fewer failure points. Greater control improves your chances of success.

When solving problems, remember that less is more. Complex solutions have their place, but they should be your last option.

That’s it for this week. See you next Tuesday!

P.S. The purpose of the test is to show you our bias for complexity. I tested this with family and friends, and most of them used a pattern of multiples of 3.

The only rule I had in mind was to arrange the numbers in ascending order. When I asked why they chose multiples of 3, they said simply using ascending order felt too easy.

This my friends illustrates our bias for complex solutions.